Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 19.167393 20.819662 22.641202 24.816725 27.369377 30.302027 33.975095
2024-10-13 16.649668 18.820055 21.388143 24.716611 29.021930 34.568246 42.564974
2024-10-20 14.721606 17.101997 20.062497 24.140477 29.840274 37.943707 51.309103
2024-10-27 13.893144 16.560149 20.039938 25.136470 32.874739 45.202539 69.399524
2024-11-03 12.862577 15.601007 19.294009 24.946168 34.082596 50.052572 86.844031
2024-11-10 12.117743 14.923553 18.820227 25.029885 35.688733 56.179776 113.049359
2024-11-17 11.526558 14.386452 18.463136 25.203730 37.454995 63.407702 153.144953
2024-11-24 11.010078 13.899959 18.113461 25.312434 39.107246 71.276690 215.344021
2024-12-01 10.468292 13.328587 17.570053 25.000781 39.847874 77.389790 296.173195
2024-12-08 10.061398 12.921964 17.238286 25.001655 41.231428 86.274798 471.324017
2024-12-15 9.654933 12.485887 16.817674 24.778226 42.066811 94.228317 806.894396
2024-12-22 9.273447 12.062559 16.381229 24.465925 42.624985 101.862597 1668.076136
2024-12-29 8.934958 11.689538 16.005476 24.237642 43.383719 111.432355 8576.571192
2025-01-05 8.634923 11.359340 15.676696 24.062672 44.255484 122.858986 NaN
2025-01-12 8.289622 10.940745 15.170432 23.476573 43.908262 128.272094 NaN
2025-01-19 8.219970 10.951365 15.395385 24.408654 48.063967 166.909904 NaN
2025-01-26 7.980091 10.677106 15.104536 24.219437 48.896236 186.584159 NaN
2025-02-02 7.796815 10.484895 14.945077 24.295283 50.604825 219.873099 NaN
2025-02-09 7.638316 10.324903 14.831658 24.458802 52.686508 268.007147 NaN
2025-02-16 7.481602 10.160214 14.698360 24.561295 54.627225 329.975659 NaN
2025-02-23 7.282405 9.916822 14.406330 24.264622 55.038612 374.378551 NaN
2025-03-02 7.133004 9.750301 14.247129 24.265273 56.620023 467.289687 NaN
2025-03-09 6.965856 9.547558 14.009109 24.052709 57.311405 557.560343 NaN